# November 6th with David Kohler

November 12, 2012 1 Comment

On October 6^{th} David Kohler came to Science World for the second time. This week he taught us about probability.

We did two experiments to help us become more acquainted with probability.

- Simulated probability to have duplicates by drawing n balls into 20 boxes.
- We chose numbers from 1-20 at www.randomhouse.com and picked up “random” numbers until we had a duplicate of a number. After everyone had separated into groups to try their own experiment, we found out that everyone had a duplicate before they entered 20 numbers.
- We did a Monty Hall experiment.

Which is a numerical simulation of the switching strategy. We paired off in to groups containing 3-4 people. There were three roles: a game host, a participant, and a data analyst. The game host had to first arrange the cards on the table and remember where the “treasure” card was, in secret of the participant. Then ask the participant to choose a door. After asking the participant, the game host has to reveal a door, but not the one that the participant chose, behind which there is a goat. Finally the host asks the participant if they want to switch and reveal the door that the participant chose. In a spread sheet, we reported a 1 if the switching strategy yielded a treasure and 0 for a goat. The hypothesis for the experiment was that the switching strategy yields a 50% chance. The hypothesis was very close to the percentage we had. The number of iterations was: 79 and the wins for the switching strategy was: 45.

Advertisements

Thanks! David Zhang is a member of FSL – I think you mean David Kohler 🙂